Washington, DC — As we’re all being painfully reminded, slicing off for any size of time the fifth of the world’s oil provide that passes by way of the Strait of Hormuz has an awfully unfavourable impression on commerce and lives right here and all over the place.
However what if we might get even half of that oil one other approach?
Almost ten p.c of the world’s oil is in Africa, one of the crucial promising – and underutilized – options to Hormuz dominance. Plus, with important reserves, Atlantic-facing export routes, and crude well-suited to Western refineries, African oil presents greater than backup provide – it represents a structural alternative to rebalance international power flows. On the similar time, increasing refining capability on the continent – from new large-scale services like Nigeria’s Dangote refinery to current vegetation – creates a possibility for Africa to seize extra worth domestically, scale back reliance on imported fuels, and strengthen its function not simply as a provider of crude oil, however as a extra built-in participant in international power markets.
In an period of sustained geopolitical uncertainty, elevating Africa’s function for itself and the world is not only prudent, it’s important for constructing a extra resilient international power system. African nations, the worldwide group and international traders can and may begin making it occur.
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The continent is already house to a broad group of hydrocarbon producers, together with Nigeria, Angola, Libya, Algeria, and Ghana, in addition to rising pure fuel powerhouses like Mozambique. Collectively, they symbolize huge potential but stay under-integrated into long-term continental and international power methods.
In contrast to Center Jap exports, a lot of Africa’s oil and fuel is Atlantic-facing, permitting it to achieve European and American markets with out passing by way of essentially the most weak maritime chokepoints. This strategic benefit additional positions Africa as a core pillar of a diversified power system, fairly than a secondary or contingency possibility.
Equally essential, many African crude streams are well-matched to the technical necessities of refineries in Europe and the USA. Manufacturing from international locations like Nigeria and Angola tends to be straightforward to course of and will be built-in into current refining methods with minimal adjustment. As markets recalibrate, this compatibility makes African provide readily usable.
Increasing Africa’s function in international power markets presents a number of clear benefits.
First is improved power resilience. By broadening the vary of provide sources and routes, consuming nations can scale back publicity to localized disruptions and create a extra balanced portfolio. Africa’s contribution on this context is not going to be marginal however significant as new manufacturing and export capability come on-line.
Second, the logistics are favorable. Delivery routes from West Africa to Europe and the Americas are comparatively direct and versatile, decreasing transit instances and publicity to maritime threat. In a world atmosphere the place transport disruptions – from geopolitical tensions to piracy – are an ongoing concern, diversified routing is an more and more worthwhile asset.
Third, deeper engagement creates alternatives for mutually useful partnerships. Funding in manufacturing, pipelines, and refining capability can drive financial progress throughout the continent whereas enhancing provide stability for international markets. For African economies, this implies income, employment, and industrial improvement. For exterior companions, it means entry to new, dependable sources of power inside a extra diversified system.
The present market disruption is already demonstrating the dimensions of that chance. Rising international crude costs linked to the Iran battle are anticipated to generate important income windfalls for a number of African producers, with Nigeria alone projected to realize billions in further oil income. For international locations equivalent to Angola, increased costs might quickly offset declining manufacturing and create fiscal respiratory room to cut back debt burdens, strengthen reserves, and spend money on long-term infrastructure. If managed successfully, this second might present not solely short-term income good points, but in addition a basis for extra sturdy power and financial resilience throughout the continent.
There’s additionally a broader strategic dimension. In recent times, OPEC+ has demonstrated a willingness to actively handle provide in pursuit of worth stability and geopolitical leverage, together with coordinated manufacturing cuts which have tightened international markets. This has bolstered the affect of a comparatively concentrated group of producers over international pricing dynamics. Increasing engagement with African producers – a lot of whom function outdoors this framework or with higher manufacturing flexibility – can assist dilute that focus of affect.
A extra various provide base wouldn’t remove OPEC+’s function, however it might introduce higher stability, giving consuming nations extra choices and decreasing the impression of coordinated provide choices.
Sure, an expanded African power function comes with actual challenges. Governance and political stability range throughout key producing international locations, with some areas going through battle, regulatory uncertainty, or corruption. These components can complicate funding choices and improve threat.
Infrastructure constraints are one other important hurdle. In lots of instances, pipeline networks, export terminals, and refining capability stay underdeveloped. Addressing these gaps would require sustained capital funding and coordination between governments, multilateral establishments, and the personal sector.
Competitors can be intensifying. China, India, and different international gamers are already deeply engaged in African power markets, typically bringing sooner financing and fewer situations. For Western international locations to stay aggressive, they might want to pair capital with long-term dedication, technical experience, and credible partnerships.
However the hurdles will be overcome. The blockage of Hormuz provides each incentive and urgency.
To comprehend Africa’s potential, U.S. policymakers – alongside companions in Europe, the Gulf, and different aligned economies – ought to pursue a extra deliberate and sustained funding technique throughout the continent. That features encouraging private and non-private funding and increasing assist for upstream and midstream infrastructure from manufacturing to pipelines and export terminals. Financing instruments such because the U.S. Worldwide Growth Finance Company and the Export-Import Financial institution ought to be deployed extra aggressively to cut back mission threat.
On the similar time, Washington and its companions ought to encourage and work with multilateral establishments such because the World Financial institution and the African Growth Financial institution to prioritize power infrastructure as a improvement and safety crucial. Carried out successfully, these investments can unlock manufacturing capability whereas guaranteeing that U.S. corporations stay aggressive in an area the place state-backed rivals are already entrenched.
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Strengthening bilateral U.S.–Africa power partnerships may even be crucial. This implies not simply high-level dialogues but in addition modernized commerce frameworks and sustained technical cooperation. Nations like Nigeria, Angola, and Ghana provide rapid alternatives for deeper engagement, whereas rising producers equivalent to Mozambique current an opportunity for the USA, Europe, and different companions to form requirements from the outset.
Encouraging higher personal sector participation will finally decide success. The size of funding required to develop Africa’s power capability far exceeds what public financing alone can present. Policymakers ought to give attention to mobilizing personal capital by way of public-private partnerships, blended finance mechanisms, and expanded entry to political threat insurance coverage.
The worldwide power panorama is evolving, formed by new dangers and new alternatives. Buyers who’ve been nervous about working in Africa have gotten extra fearful about not doing so.
Africa is each an alternative choice to current provide facilities and a crucial part of a extra diversified and resilient system. Recognizing and investing in that function now will assist form a future power map outlined not by focus however by flexibility and strategic alternative. We must always begin now to get half of the Hormuz oil one other approach.
Ambassador Herman J. Cohen (ret.) served within the U.S. international service between 1955 and 1993 as ambassador and profession ambassador, consular officer, assistant secretary of state for Africa and as particular assistant to the president and senior director for Africa on the U.S. Nationwide Safety Council.
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