The coercive repatriation of Burundian refugees dangers reproducing cycles of displacement forward of Burundi’s 2027 elections.
Since December 2025, tens of hundreds of Burundian refugees in Tanzania have returned to Burundi, primarily from Nduta camp, which closed in April. Most had fled Burundi after former president Pierre Nkurunziza’s resolution to hunt a 3rd time period triggered violent protests in 2015, adopted by a failed coup and repression.
The returns accelerated after November 2025 when the Tanzania-Burundi-United Nations Refugee Company (UNHCR) tripartite fee agreed to shut Nduta and Nyarugusu camps by mid-2026, affecting about 142 000 Burundian refugees.
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Refugees, humanitarian organisations and civil society organisations (CSOs) have documented intimidation by Tanzanian police in opposition to refugees. In Burundi, the arbitrary arrests and enforced disappearances of civilians heighten refugees’ fears for his or her security. Members or supporters of Burundi’s political opposition are particularly anxious about persecution ought to they return.
The timing of this repatriation is just not politically impartial. Burundi’s subsequent presidential elections are scheduled for 2027, and displacement and refugee returns intersect uncomfortably with electoral dynamics. Earlier than the 2020 polls, Burundi’s authorities promoted the return of refugees, opposition leaders and CSO leaders to legitimise the electoral course of. State repression weakened home political opposition and helped produce polls with out open protest.
Since 2017, and with renewed momentum after 2020, the Tanzania-Burundi-UNHCR fee has met yearly to guage refugees’ dwelling situations in Tanzania and to deliberate on methods to repatriate with dignity.
Roughly 184 000 refugees had been despatched residence by November 2025. Three elements drove these elevated returns. First, Burundi’s efforts to advertise repatriation as proof of home stability. Second, the UNHCR’s shift from facilitating to actively selling voluntary returns. Third, worldwide funding shortfalls that got here on the again of Tanzania’s restrictive refugee coverage, which options strict encampment measures and restricted livelihood alternatives.
Burundians have a protracted historical past of compelled exile and repatriation processes, some extra profitable than others. Since independence in 1962, the nation has skilled repeated episodes of violence and civil battle, the newest being the 2015 election-related disaster. Every generated new refugee outflows, principally to Tanzania but additionally to Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).
These actions have been formed by political violence, ethnic tensions, repression, financial hardship and climate-related disasters like floods and landslides, which have left psycho-social scars.
The 2015 political disaster alone displaced over 400 000 to neighbouring nations, principally Tanzania. Many had been former refugees who had returned, solely to be displaced once more. This underscores the cyclical nature of displacement and the fragility of previous processes that prioritised refugee numbers over the situations of repatriation.
In 2012, Tanzania revoked the refugee standing of post-1993 Burundian refugees, forcing round 34 000 to return to Burundi, typically with out ample reintegration help and generally regardless of pending resettlement recordsdata. This fostered distrust of repatriation.
Different options concurrently gained enchantment. Resettlement programmes within the 2000s enabled the relocation of a number of households to the USA, Canada, Norway, Sweden and elsewhere. In 2014, Tanzania provided naturalisation to roughly 162 000 pre-1993 Burundian refugees.
For present returnees, situations awaiting them in Burundi do not encourage confidence. Exile has lasted generations, and a few younger adults born in Tanzanian camps have by no means identified Burundi. Others skilled the nation briefly earlier than being compelled to flee once more. For them, ‘return’ means going to an unknown nation – a spot that has by no means been theirs. Reminiscences and anticipation of additional deterioration in dwelling situations reinforce their fears.
The structural downside of long-term assist dependency isn’t acknowledged in repatriation discussions. For refugees who’ve spent many years, in some circumstances their complete lives, counting on humanitarian help, returning to Burundi with out significant livelihood help represents potential destitution quite than an answer.
Restricted from working and missing entry to ample vocational coaching in Tanzanian camps, many have by no means acquired the means to supply for his or her households independently. That is significantly arduous in Burundi, one of many world’s poorest nations, the place restricted income-generating alternatives, unresolved land disputes, political instability and institutional weaknesses constrain growth.
The accelerated return course of from Tanzania additionally coincided with a December 2025 inflow of Congolese refugees into Burundi, fleeing the battle in jap DRC. These refugees would pressure the already restricted native sources and response capacities.
One other problem is the underfunding of repatriation and reintegration help, which consists of a one-off US$150 cost with out entry to housing, income-generating alternatives, or primary providers.
In these situations, returning to Burundi dangers being merely one other kind of compelled displacement. A rushed, coercive return course of would not simply undermine reintegration. It may exacerbate neighborhood tensions, land conflicts and financial strain, probably reinforcing quite than resolving cycles of displacement, significantly forward of the 2027 elections.
Repatriation have to be genuinely voluntary, secure and dignified, not only a political or administrative goal. This requires three interventions.
First, coercive practices have to be independently monitored and condemned, consistent with the core non-refoulement precept of worldwide refugee regulation. A sturdy safety monitoring mechanism is required, with clear reporting on post-return outcomes, together with land disputes and renewed displacement.
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Second, reintegration help should recognise the structural vulnerabilities that camp-based assist dependency has created. Donors, the UNHCR and the governments of Tanzania and Burundi should acknowledge that many returnees arrive with out the abilities or sources to independently construct sustainable livelihoods. Lengthy-term help, college price help, vocational coaching, income-generating actions and entry to microcredit may assist them reintegrate.
Third, repatriation shouldn’t be offered as the one resolution for these unwilling to return. Many Burundian refugees face a tough alternative between an unsafe return and an more and more untenable keep.
Opening pathways for resettlement and native integration is just not an alternative choice to repatriation – it’s a obligatory complement in a area devastated by many years of displacement. For returns to be actually voluntary, refugees want actual choices.
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Tatien Nkeshimana, Analysis Officer, Battle Prevention, Administration and Peacebuilding within the Nice Lakes Area, ISS
Bram Verelst, Senior Researcher, Battle Prevention, Administration and Peacebuilding within the Nice Lakes Area, ISS
