There may be anxiousness that Nigerians might proceed to pay extra for Premium Motor Spirit, PMS, often known as petrol alongside Automotive Fuel Oil, referred to as diesel as the worth of crude oil rose to above $100 per barrel, yesterday.
Many Nigerians had regarded ahead to decrease gas vitality value, following a drop on Wednesday to $92, however after escalations in the USA and Israel conflict on Iran, with Iran’s new supreme chief, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, insisting that the essential Straits of Hormuz will stay basically closed as a instrument of stress, crude oil costs rose.
Each Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Nigerian Nationwide Petroleum Firm, NNPC, Restricted, had introduced petrol worth discount on Tuesday and Wednesday, and Nigerians had hoped the worth will drop additional, however with the rise in crude oil worth within the worldwide market, such expectations could also be quick lived.
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Oil worth had Wednesday dropped to $88 per barrel from $110 the day past after the Worldwide Vitality Company, IEA, reported that its 32-member international locations had unanimously agreed to launch 400 million barrels of oil from their reserves to cushion the impact of the closure of Straits of Hormuz and the shock on oil provide.
Nevertheless, following the defiant posture of Khamenei and his risk to maintain the blockage, costs beginning ticking up.
Vanguard checks revealed that crude oil worth elevated to beween $96 to $117 per barrel, relying on grade.
In the meantime, as at yesterday, petrol worth stays excessive at N1,200 per litre and above throughout the nation.
Depot house owners, entrepreneurs keep N1, 200, N1, 300 per litre
Checks by vanguard confirmed that in Lagos, depot house owners – Matrix, Menj, NIPCO, Pinnacle and Rainoil bought the product at N1,200, N1,180, N1,175, and N1,200 per litre respectively.
The checks confirmed that in Warri, depot house owners reminiscent of, Danmarna, Matrix, Parker, Prudent and Zamson – bought it at N1,200, N1,205, N1,200, N1,204 and N1,200 per litre, respectively.
In Port Harcourt, Bulk Strategic, Liquid Bulk, Masters, Matrix and Sigmund bought it at N1, 200, N1,150, N1,215, N1,220 and N1,215 per litre respectively.
Additionally, in Calabar, depot house owners – Dozzy, Fynefield, Matrix, NorthWest and Wabeco — bought at N1,195, N1,200, N1,205, N1,200 and N195 per litre respectively.
Transporters, commuters, others lament excessive gas costs
In interviews with Vanguard, many transporters and commuters, who pleaded to be nameless, lamented their ordeals, whereas calling on the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, NMDPRA, to intervene and compel oil entrepreneurs to regulate pump worth with out additional delay.
One in every of them mentioned: “The operators, particularly depot house owners are all the time quick to regulate upward costs of their favour. Nevertheless, they all the time discover it tough to regulate downward in favour of customers.”
NNPC reduces petrol worth to N1,130 in Lagos, N1,165 in Abuja
Regardless of the rise in crude worth, NNPC Restricted has diminished the pump worth of petrol at its shops to N1,130 per litre in Lagos and N1,165 per litre in Abuja.
The discount, which took impact on Wednesday, represents a drop of N100 from the earlier worth of N1,230 per litre in Lagos and N95 from N1,260 per litre in Abuja.
In Lagos, the brand new worth was noticed at NNPC filling stations positioned alongside Isheri Oshun Highway, Apple Junction and In the past Palace Approach.
Equally, in Abuja, the nationwide oil firm adjusted its pump worth to N1,165 per litre at its shops in Jabi and Wuse.
The worth minimize comes as oil entrepreneurs are but to replicate a current discount within the gantry worth of petrol by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
Checks by Vanguard indicated that the choice was taken by the corporate earlier than the newest rise in crude oil worth and different developments within the world market with implications on the home market.
Downstream present process structural transition — Prof Wumi
Nevertheless, reacting in a phone interview with Vanguard, Prof. Wumi Iledare, a Petroleum Economist, mentioned: “What we’re observing in Nigeria in the present day shouldn’t be merely a easy improve in petrol costs; moderately, it displays worth volatility typical of a market present process structural transition. Nigeria is shifting from an extended interval of administered pricing and heavy import dependence towards a extra market-driven downstream petroleum sector.
“In such an atmosphere, pricing behaviour is influenced not solely by present provide circumstances but in addition by expectations about future substitute prices. Entrepreneurs and depot operators usually depend on what economists name adaptive expectations — that means that current worth actions, alternate price alerts, and anticipated provide circumstances form their pricing selections.
“Even with the crude-for-naira provide association and the emergence of home refining capability such because the Dangote Refinery, the market has not but reached a steady equilibrium between home provide and imports. So long as uncertainty exists concerning crude provide to refineries, logistics, overseas alternate dynamics, and substitute prices, short-term volatility in pump costs shouldn’t be sudden.
“In the end, the important thing challenge is market stability moderately than short-term worth actions. As Nigeria deepens home refining, ensures dependable crude provide to native refineries, and maintains a clear and predictable pricing framework, we must always anticipate volatility to average over time.
“In financial phrases, stability comes when provide certainty meets clear market alerts. When home refining turns into persistently dependable and market individuals have faith in provide continuity, pricing behaviour will step by step align extra carefully with underlying fundamentals moderately than expectations.
“So, what we’re witnessing in the present day is basically a transition part in Nigeria’s evolving downstream petroleum market, and the coverage precedence must be to strengthen the circumstances that enable that market to stabilize and performance effectively.
“Certainly, volatility in petrol costs in the present day displays a market in transition–from import dependence and administrative pricing to home refining and market discovery.”
Straits of Hormuz will stay closed, says Iran’s Supreme chief in first message
Iran’s new Supreme Chief, Mojtaba Khamenei had mentioned in a message that Tehran believes in friendship with its neighbours, however pressured that his nation will proceed to focus on US bases in these international locations if they aren’t shut down.
In his first message, Mojtaba Khamenei mentioned: “We solely focused these navy bases (and) we are going to proceed, we should proceed and accomplish that.”
The Supreme Chief mentioned the US and Israel should pay compensation for his or her actions, referring solely to the 2 international locations as “the enemy.”
Khamenei additionally thanked Iran’s allies and proxies within the area, which he referred to as the “Resistance Entrance.” Particularly mentioning Houthi rebels in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the pro-Iranian Iraqi resistance motion, Khamenei mentioned Iran considers them its “greatest mates.” He urged the teams to proceed preventing.
A portion of Khamenei’s message was used to honour his father and predecessor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. “I had the honour of seeing his physique after his martyrdom. What I noticed was a mountain of power,” he mentioned.
He straight referenced the strike at Shajareh Tayyiba college in Minab, which state media mentioned killed at the very least 168 youngsters and 14 lecturers. “We will likely be particularly delicate concerning the blood of our youngsters,” he mentioned whereas promising revenge.
That is at the same time as Iranian state-linked media shops, Fars Information Company and Nournews, have denied experiences that the spouse of Iran’s late supreme chief, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, died of accidents sustained when the USA and Israel attacked Iran.
CNN quoted Nournews, which is affiliated with Iran’s Supreme Nationwide Safety Council, as saying that the “spouse of the martyred revolutionary chief is alive, and the preliminary information printed about her martyrdom was incorrect.”
The shops, based on CNN, didn’t present extra particulars about her situation or clarify the discrepancy with earlier experiences.
Infrastructure beneath assault
Crude oil costs are leaping additionally on a recent wave of Iranian strikes geared toward Gulf vitality targets.
The IEA, yesterday, warned that the conflict “is creating the biggest provide disruption within the historical past of the worldwide oil market.”
Retaliatory missiles and drone assaults have introduced delivery via the Straits of Hormuz nearly to a halt. Vitality infrastructure throughout the area has additionally been focused.
Bahrain mentioned an Iranian assault hit gas tanks in Muharraq, whereas drones struck gas tanks at Oman’s Salalah port. Saudi Arabia mentioned it had intercepted two drones heading in direction of its Shaybah oil discipline.
Oil giants within the Gulf have in the meantime needed to scale back their manufacturing owing to an absence of storage capability.
Markets rattled moreover by the danger of extended battle
Whereas US President Donald Trump has mentioned the conflict might finish quickly, Iran has warned it might wage an extended battle that may destroy the world economic system.
“From a market perspective, the issue is that traders are more and more pricing in a extra protracted battle that causes in depth financial harm,” mentioned Deutsche Financial institution analyst Jim Reid.
The IEA warned that there have been “no indicators of a de-escalation in hostilities or a transparent timeline for a restoration in flows via the Strait.”
Why 400m oil launch has not eased oil markets.
Worldwide Vitality Company member international locations agreed on Wednesday to launch 400 million barrels of oil from their reserves, the biggest quantity ever.
The IEA transfer was geared toward easing the instant impression of the Center East conflict on vitality markets.
America alone, the most important shopper and producer of crude, will step by step provide 172 million barrels over three months, or 40 per cent of its present reserves.
However, analysts have mentioned that the transfer was too small to offset the disruption triggered by American-Israeli assaults in opposition to Iran on February 28.
The discharge falls “far in need of the provision losses we’re seeing from the Persian Gulf”, famous commodities strategists at ING financial institution.
In line with the IEA, each day world crude manufacturing is down at the very least 8.0 million barrels, with an extra 2.0 million associated to petroleum merchandise shut off.
“It appears unlikely that the stream of reserves could make up for the misplaced stream of manufacturing,” mentioned Neil Wilson, a strategist at Saxo UK investor.
“It is a momentary and restricted resolution, the hot button is to reopen the Strait of Hormuz” which borders Iran and beneath regular circumstances permits for the passing of about one fifth of the world’s crude.
Output drops to 1.315 million bpd — OPEC
In the meantime, Nigeria’s oil output, excluding condensate dropped month-on-month, MoM to 1.314 million barrels per day in February 2026 from 1.459 million bpd in January, based on the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Nations, OPEC.
In its March 2026 Month-to-month Oil Market Report launched, yesterday, OPEC mentioned the output was based mostly on information obtained from direct communication.
When information obtained from secondary sources have been thought of, OPEC put the nation’s output at 1.460 million bpd, indicating a marginal drop from 1.488 million bpd produced in January 2026.
The info additional confirmed that Nigeria didn’t meet its OPEC and finances 2026 targets of 1.5 million bpd and 1.84 million bpd, respectively although the worth has risen in extra of the $64.85 per barrel.
An knowledgeable, who pleaded to stay nameless, mentioned: “From all indications the Federal Authorities would doubtless generate extra income based mostly on the present excessive worth and restricted volumes exported to the worldwide market however Nigerians would endure as they proceed to pay excessive costs for petrol and different petroleum merchandise.”
6 vessels attacked amid experiences of Iranian drone boats, sea mines
Explosive-laden Iranian boats seem to have attacked two gas tankers in Iraqi waters, setting them ablaze and killing one crew member, after projectiles struck 4 vessels in Gulf waters, based on experiences.
The ships focused in late-night ‘ assaults on Wednesday within the Gulf close to Iraq have been the Marshall Islands-flagged Safesea Vishnu and the Zefyros, which had loaded gas cargoes in Iraq, two Iraqi port officers instructed the Reuters information company. One Iraqi port safety supply mentioned the Zefyros was flagged Malta.
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“We recovered the physique of a overseas crew member from the water,” one port safety official mentioned as Iraqi rescue groups continued looking for lacking seafarers.
“A ship belonging to the Iraqi Ports Firm rescued 25 crew members from the 2 vessels, and the fires are nonetheless burning on each ships,” Farhan al-Fartousi, director common of the state-run Basic Firm for Ports of Iraq, instructed Reuters.
An Indian crew member on board a United States-owned crude oil tanker was killed when it was attacked close to Basra, Iraq, on Wednesday, India’s embassy in Baghdad mentioned, yesterday.s
Nigeria ought to leverage world oil worth hikes by boosting manufacturing and securing pipelines, whereas saving windfall revenues in fiscal buffers. Concurrently, the federal government should defend residents from inflation via enhanced refining and focused social safety. Lengthy-term stability requires diversifying the economic system past oil to scale back vulnerability to exterior geopolitical shocks.
—Rotn. Adeleke Olubanwo,Writer
As former CRAN President, I urge the Federal Authorities to proactively cushion shocks from the U.S.-Israel-Iran battle. Unstable oil costs spike inflation and dwelling prices. Authorities should subsidize transportation and meals whereas boosting crude manufacturing by tackling theft and vandalism. Sensible steps are very important to make sure Nigerians profit from world worth hikes moderately than struggling their penalties.
–Odita Sunday,Editor-in-Chief
The Nigerian authorities should urgently tackle the hovering costs of meals, important commodities, and petroleum merchandise. Implementing subsidies, alongside strict laws to checkmate arbitrary prices, is important to guard the general public. A authorities’s main function is to function a shock absorber, guaranteeing that financial volatility doesn’t crush the welfare of its most weak residents.
–Ifueko Oviasu, Entrepreneur
To make sure stability, the Nigerian authorities should prioritize vitality independence, overseas reserves, and native modular refineries, whereas mandating an 80% discount in imports and returning subsidies. A authorities exists to cushion financial shocks for its folks; like a automobile’s shock absorber, its obligation is to make sure that each bump shouldn’t be felt by the passengers.
–Erhahi Emmanuel, Entrepreneur
The President ought to tackle the nation to acknowledge public hardship and clarify the exterior drivers of the present disaster. An interim subsidy is required to stabilize gas costs and important prices. Concurrently, growing crude provide to the Dangote Refinery will scale back import dependency and manufacturing bills. In the end, cheaper gas ensures extra reasonably priced items and providers.
–Ukhun E. Anthony, Entrepreneur
The U.S.-Israel-Iran battle destabilizes world economies, but Nigeria stays reactive. At present, 40% of crude meant for native refineries is bought to overseas corporations, who resell to Dangote in {dollars}. Authorities should repair refineries and prioritize promoting crude in Naira to Dangote. Cease funding unprofitable coastal highways and give attention to easing the financial strangulation of Nigerians.
–Iyke Newman, Nationwide PRO, EUN
