Can the security-for-minerals method yield win-win outcomes for Sahelian states past diplomatic recognition?
In February, United States (US) Senior State Division Official Nick Checker visited Bamako to reaffirm Washington’s respect for Mali’s sovereignty, and reset bilateral ties after ‘previous coverage missteps’ by renewed safety and financial cooperation. Related messages have been conveyed to Nigerien Prime Minister, Ali Lamine Zeine.
These diplomatic overtures construct on security-for-minerals visits in 2025 by different senior US authorities officers. In addition they coincide with a US strategic push to safe crucial mineral entry – regardless of almost 70% of worldwide refining capability remaining below Chinese language management.
In early February, Washington introduced Mission Vault, a crucial minerals strategic reserve, and hosted its first crucial minerals ministerial with 54 international locations. The US designates 60 minerals – together with lithium, cobalt, uncommon earths and graphite – as ‘crucial’ on account of their important position in power transition and defence applied sciences, coupled with geopolitically weak provide chains.
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Past its oil and gold endowments, the Sahel area is rising as a strategic node for crucial minerals extraction. Mali is projected to turn into Africa’s second-largest lithium producer in 2026 with reserves estimated at 890 000 tonnes. Niger holds roughly 454 000 tonnes of uranium reserves, representing 5% of worldwide manufacturing. The area additionally hosts vital manganese deposits and different crucial minerals.
The US’ conciliatory outreach to Bamako and Niamey thus seems pushed much less by a coverage shift than by strategic pursuits linked to US crucial mineral wants.
Washington’s response to the Sahel coups and the area’s pivot in direction of Russia has for a while been extra measured than that of the European Union (EU) and France. Whereas suspending cooperation in step with its authorized necessities following the coups, the US sustained high-level outreach throughout Joe Biden and Donald Trump‘s administrations. For instance, Niger’s coup designation was delayed to safeguard the US’ US$100 million Agadez drone base and forestall Russian safety penetration.
Nonetheless, the US’ latest outreach is important because it recalibrates the diplomatic panorama across the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), made up of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso. Alongside Russia and China, the US is the third UN Safety Council energy partaking the Sahel’s army governments. This complicates efforts by the African Union (AU) and Financial Group of West African States (ECOWAS) to discourage coups.
The underlying sign to West Africa’s potential coup plotters is that political endurance can yield worldwide reengagement, particularly for resource-rich states.
The EU adopted a renewed Sahel method in late 2025 after its principles-based posture alienated AES capitals, but divisions persist over implementation, with France notably reluctant. Amid transatlantic tensions, stress to speed up normalisation could enhance, additional reinforcing AES diplomatic leverage.
The important thing query, nonetheless, is whether or not this security-for-minerals method can yield win-win outcomes for Sahelian states past diplomatic recognition.
The ‘American resolution’ offered to Mali in 2025 reportedly included gear packages, intelligence help and potential floor deployments. However wouldn’t it ship outcomes that neither France nor Russia have managed to realize since 2013?
Washington rolled out a number of initiatives within the area from 2002 onwards, together with the Trans-Sahara Counterterrorism Partnership, annual Flintlock workout routines and surveillance drone bases in Niger. Regardless of US$3.3 billion safety help over 20 years, US efforts have neither contained the jihadist surge in northern Mali nor prevented its unfold into Burkina Faso and Niger.
The crux of the matter is that kinetic approaches haven’t solely failed however, at instances, aggravated the human safety surroundings, whatever the exterior companion concerned.
Economically, Trump’s method faces a core paradox. Dismantling the US Company for Worldwide Improvement and rolling again the Millennium Problem Company deprive the US of the event and infrastructure financing instruments wanted for sturdy Sahel reengagement.
In the meantime, if eligibility to the African Progress and Alternative Act for AES international locations have been restored, it might be largely symbolic. Mali and Burkina Faso exported solely US$4.6 million and US$3.7 million respectively to the US pre-coup, whereas Niger’s figures (US$94.6 million in 2021, US$73.1 million in 2022, US$46.9 million in 2023) mirror no constant business dynamic.
The safety-for-minerals method additionally faces vital political constraints. Mali’s Goulamina and Bougouni lithium belongings stay below Chinese language management, whereas Russia’s Uranium One holds the one exploration allow for Bougoula, making US reallocation unlikely.
Bamako’s reliance on Moscow and Beijing for army help and diplomatic backing – significantly buffering ECOWAS and EU stress – creates sturdy disincentives to recalibrate. Provided that sovereigntist narratives underpin the federal government’s legitimacy, any reversal would carry home prices.
Mali and the US may nonetheless interact in lithium exploration, whereas increasing cooperation into different sectors, as mirrored in latest US gold mining permits. Nevertheless, this will depend on improved safety, underscoring one more dilemma going through the US method.
In Niger, uranium exploitation is below intense political stress. Whereas China is concerned solely within the Azelik mine, authorities have nationalised SOMAIR – beforehand collectively operated with France’s Orano – and revoked Orano’s allow for Imouraren, Niger’s largest uranium deposit. Niamey’s reported try to market over 1 000 tonnes of yellowcake co-owned with Orano has additional escalated diplomatic tensions with Paris.
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These developments unfold towards the backdrop of potential Iranian curiosity in Niger’s uranium sector. Broader Niamey-Tehran rapprochement efforts have beforehand raised US issues.
Unconceded uranium deposits may nonetheless underpin US engagement. Gross sales at worldwide market costs may deal with Niger’s long-standing grievances over below-market French contracts. If offers embrace infrastructure, know-how switch and coaching, they’d place the US as a reputable different, addressing each geopolitical danger and growth wants.
In the end, AES states are in the midst of a risky geopolitical contest and will weigh US overtures with warning. Trump’s international coverage is unpredictable: the identical sovereignty now revered within the Sahel was disregarded in Venezuela and handled as negotiable in Greenland.
Whether or not unique entry to the Sahel’s crucial minerals has turn into a core US goal stays unclear, however this conciliatory method could be the carrot – with Trump’s most stress playbook not far behind. On this context, hedging stays the prudent course.
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Djiby Sow, Senior Researcher, ISS Regional Workplace for West Africa and the Sahel