- FMCG gross sales worth for 2025 rise 5.7% to R683 billion
- Conventional commerce channels rising at a sooner tempo than trendy commerce
- Winner-takes-all alternative for agile FMCG manufacturers in conventional commerce channels
NielsenIQ (NIQ) South Africa has launched its State of the Retail Nation evaluation* for the calendar 12 months of 2025, displaying wholesome development in retail gross sales worth and quantity. South African customers spent practically R683.3 billion on fast-moving shopper items (FMCG) by conventional and trendy commerce channels throughout the 12 months beneath overview. This represents year-over-year worth development of 5.7%, with unit gross sales growing by 6.7%.
“Throughout 2025, South Africa’s FMCG sector confirmed resilience in navigating persistent headwinds similar to excessive unemployment and low financial development, whereas making the most of tailwinds similar to a stronger rand and moderating inflation,” says Zak Haeri, Managing Director for NIQ in South Africa.
“We noticed real momentum in 2025 as actual wages improved and spending lifted throughout most classes. However the unstable geopolitical local weather, a backdrop of commerce tensions and spiking costs for commodities similar to cocoa and low might problem FMCG manufacturers and retailers within the months to come back.”
FMCG market: Snacks continues to be the star performer
Meals, the most important class, was up 6.3% to almost R246.4 billion for the 12 months and noticed a 5.9% gross sales quantity enhance. The fastest-growing segments for the complete 12 months have been non-alcoholic drinks (up 7.5% to almost R96 billion) and snacking (up 7.9% to R50.2 billion). These classes additionally noticed spectacular gross sales quantity development, with non-alcoholic drinks up 7.1% and snacking up 13.5% – indicating unit gross sales development over and above inflation.
Most different key classes additionally delivered respectable development:
| Sector | Worth | Gross sales worth development | Gross sales quantity development | ||||
| Private care and well being | R78.4 billion | 5.1% | 3.3% | ||||
| Liquor | R137.8 billion | 4.2% | 4.6% | ||||
| House and pet | R34.9 billion | 3.8% | 1.6% | ||||
| Child meals and care | R14.2 billion | 0.9% | 3.2% | ||||
| Tobacco | R25.1 billion | 5.6% | 6.7% |
Conventional commerce outperforms trendy commerce
The majority of FMCG retail gross sales for the 12 months – R513.2 billion – went by trendy commerce channels similar to grocery store chains, franchised grocery shops and ecommerce platforms. Conventional commerce channels (which embrace unbiased superettes, spaza outlets and taverns) racked up round R170.1 billion in gross sales.
Nonetheless, gross sales development in conventional commerce is outpacing trendy commerce. Haeri says: “Conventional commerce has bounced again following the disruption of the COVID-19 lockdown years. Comfort is one cause for conventional commerce’s outperformance throughout 2025. With greater than 140,000 conventional commerce shops versus round 11,000 trendy commerce shops, conventional merchants provide unmatched accessibility, particularly for consumers in distant and rural areas.
“Conventional commerce can also be benefitting from a development of households going to the outlets extra usually, shopping for smaller packs and buying much less per journey to the outlets. With many conventional merchants leveraging their networks to purchase bulk from wholesalers and distributors, they’re extra worth aggressive with trendy commerce than they have been earlier than. On this context, consumers have much less incentive to journey to bigger shops to make massive purchases.”
Personal label share dwindles as conventional commerce expands
Subdued development within the trendy commerce sector contributed to a slight decline in non-public label share of whole retail gross sales. Excluding the tobacco and liquor classes, non-public labels accounted for round 17.7% of FMCG gross sales worth in 2025, down from18.3% in 2024. Personal label gross sales worth grew 4.1% in 2025 to almost R106 billion, in comparison with gross sales development of 8.1% the 12 months earlier than.
This softening in non-public label momentum additionally comes as unbiased and branded gamers ramp up promotions, innovate extra aggressively and lengthen distribution, which all contributes to extra competitors on cabinets.
“The distinctive development in conventional commerce is a compelling alternative for agile FMCG manufacturers,” says Haeri. “However profitable right here is a distinct ball sport to trendy commerce. In trendy commerce, dozens of SKUs can get a justifiable share of the worth. In conventional commerce, it’s a winner-takes-all dynamic. In case you are not one of many prime manufacturers on the shelf, it’s sport over.”
2026 outlook: Turbulence forward?
Seeking to the remainder of 2026, Haeri says that it might not be shocking to see shopper inflation rise once more attributable to provide chain pressures and power prices, significantly if the battle within the Center East is extended. FMCG retailers and producers ought to be sure that they’re structured to reply quickly if headwinds emerge or tailwinds strengthen.
“You can not predict exterior shocks, however you’ll be able to management how rapidly you reply and the way resilient your provide chain is. Promotions and pack structure are necessary levers in a price-sensitive market like South Africa,” says Haeri. “Profitable is about managing each precise worth and perceived worth. Sturdy manufacturers have extra room to maneuver.”
* Knowledge is predicated on NIQ’s complete *Retail Measurement Service (RMS), which is the most important retail (grocery) information supply within the nation and the one forex utilized by all of South Africa’s main retailers. This benchmark information includes greater than 11,000 branded stores (e.g., supermarkets and storage forecourts) and greater than 140,000 unbiased shops (e.g., spazas and taverns) throughout South Africa’s 9 provinces and measures greater than 80% of all retail grocery transactions.
Supply: NielsenIQ (NIQ).
Picture credit score: AI.
