Whereas coal producers stand to profit from stronger costs and export demand, researchers warn that elevated coal manufacturing and exports carry important environmental and social prices, from greenhouse gasoline emissions to the impacts borne by communities dwelling close to mines and coal-fired energy stations.
(Delwyn Verasamy/M&G)
The US-Israel warfare on Iran, which has despatched shockwaves by international vitality markets, is creating new alternatives for South Africa’s coal exporters as nations grapple with risky oil costs, delivery disruptions and vitality safety considerations.
However whereas coal producers stand to profit from stronger costs and export demand, researchers warn that elevated coal manufacturing and exports carry important environmental and social prices, from greenhouse gasoline emissions to the impacts borne by communities dwelling close to mines and coal-fired energy stations.
The advantages of coal enlargement will not be evenly distributed. Communities dwelling close to coal mines and coal-fired energy stations proceed to bear lots of the environmental and well being prices related to extraction and combustion.
Political economist and College of Johannesburg educational professor Patrick Bond argues that the injury extends far past native air pollution.
“Combustion of coal is the principle reason behind the local weather disaster,” he says, “and mines trigger lethal native air pollution and destruction of land, air and water.”
He provides that the local weather prices of coal exports are staggering and barely accounted for economically.
“At a social value of carbon of $1 200 (about R19 554) per tonne, a typical giant shipload causes local weather injury of $530 million (about R8.7 billion).”
The local weather, environmental and social impacts of coal mining and burning are “extreme”, gender and local weather change researcher Dr Thembi Luckett, says. That is notably for communities that stay near coal mines and energy stations.
“These communities are black, working-class communities dwelling underneath the shadow of energy stations and whose struggling is rendered permissible within the title of ‘financial progress’.”
The warfare triggered sharp will increase in gasoline and delivery prices globally. Crude oil costs briefly climbed to $126 per barrel in April earlier than easing beneath $100 after ceasefire discussions emerged and later settling at above $100. Diesel costs surged by 70% whereas delivery prices rose by 40%.
For a lot of local weather analysts, the disaster appeared to strengthen the case for renewable vitality. United Nations local weather chief Simon Stiell argues that the warfare has “supercharged” international shifts towards renewable vitality as nations looked for options to the volatility of fossil gasoline markets.
Nevertheless, whereas some analysts anticipated greater oil costs to speed up the shift to renewable vitality, coal markets have additionally benefited from the uncertainty, with stronger demand and better costs in a number of areas.
For South Africa, a rustic with plentiful photo voltaic and wind potential and an formally said dedication to a simply vitality transition, this presents a posh image. South Africa seems to be among the many nations experiencing renewed demand for coal exports.
Bond says the nation is seeing a big improve in coal exports linked to the broader geopolitical disaster.
“A lot, far more,” Bond mentioned when requested whether or not South Africa was promoting extra coal internationally for the reason that escalation of the warfare.
Asian thermal coal costs rose between 11% and 12.6% after the battle intensified. Excessive-grade Australian coal rose to round $130.81 per tonne, with analysts warning costs might rise additional if liquefied pure gasoline turns into too costly relative to coal.
South African coal producers have positioned themselves to profit. Mining titan Exxaro Sources introduced in March that its coal exports might rise by as a lot as 12% in 2026, doubtlessly reaching 8 million metric tonnes, in comparison with 7.1 million tonnes the earlier 12 months.
The corporate linked the forecast to vitality market disruptions related to the battle and rising coal costs. Though export coal costs averaged round $90 per tonne in Exxaro’s annual reporting interval, geopolitical instability has since contributed to renewed upward stress.
Bond notes that the rise isn’t solely mirrored in costs but additionally in export volumes.
“Sure, the worth is rising,” he mentioned, “however so is the annual quantity of coal exports — primarily to India — up from a low of 47 million tonnes in 2021, when Transnet had many damaged rail parts, to shut to 60 million tonnes anticipated this 12 months.”
The financial incentives are important. Larger coal costs translate into elevated export revenues, stronger returns for buyers and better incentives for continued coal manufacturing.
Exxaro declared complete shareholder payouts of R6.3 billion in 2026 regardless of declining earnings, whereas persevering with to put money into each coal and renewable vitality. “The speed of coal gross sales elevated particularly after Colombia halted them [coal sales to Israel] in August 2025,” Bond says.
After Colombia’s choice to ban coal exports to Israel over the warfare in Gaza, South Africa grew to become a considerably bigger provider of coal to Israel.
Reuters reported that South African coal exports to Israel elevated by 87% to 474 000 metric tonnes within the three months to November 2025. They reached 667 442 tonnes over a three-month interval, the very best degree recorded since 2017.
In keeping with Kpler information cited by Reuters, South Africa’s share of Israel’s seaborne coal market is anticipated to rise to 55%, greater than triple its earlier share. The pattern highlights a rigidity on the centre of South Africa’s vitality coverage.
South Africa publicly positions itself as dedicated to a simply vitality transition, with billions in worldwide local weather finance secured to help a transfer away from coal. But rising international demand and stronger costs proceed to create incentives for coal extraction and export.
There may be additionally South Africa’s case earlier than the Worldwide Courtroom of Justice in The Hague, the place it has accused Israel of genocide towards Palestinians in Gaza. The nation’s coal exports to Israel have drawn criticism from some civil society organisations.
In an advisory report back to the federal government, Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions South Africa argues that continued coal exports are inconsistent with the nation’s constitutional commitments and worldwide authorized obligations. It has referred to as on the federal government to halt such exports.
The construction of South Africa’s coal export economic system additionally reveals the focus of company energy within the fossil gasoline sector. Bond factors to the possession construction of the Richards Bay Coal Terminal as indicative of the dominant gamers benefiting from export progress.
These embody Anglo Operations, Black Royalty Minerals, Exxaro, Kangra, Koornfontein, Liberty, Mbokodo, Optimum Coal, Quattro, Sasol, Seriti, South Dunes, SA Coal Mine Holdings, South32 Coal, Tumelo Coal Mines and Umcebo Mining.
Shaazia Ebrahim works on the Local weather Justice Coalition
