Eskom’s diesel invoice falls 86% as breakdowns hit eight-year low

Eskom recorded a each day vitality availability issue (EAF) of 80.24% on 20 July, its finest single day since 20 September 2017.

The monetary year-to-date EAF stands at 66.22%, an enchancment of 6.97 proportion factors 12 months on 12 months however nonetheless in need of the 70% Eskom has set as its restoration benchmark.

The each day file additionally owes one thing to timing: Eskom eases off deliberate upkeep throughout peak winter demand, and the deliberate capability loss issue for the week to 23 July was 7.19%, down from 10.74% a 12 months earlier. Fewer items in for restore means extra accessible to dispatch, which flatters the each day studying. Over the 12 months as a complete, Eskom has achieved extra upkeep, not much less, averaging 12.28% of capability in opposition to 11.13%.

The substantive enchancment is in what stopped breaking: on 19 July, unplanned outages dropped to five.89GW, the bottom each day stage since 2 July 2018. Throughout the week they averaged 7.07GW in opposition to 11.84GW a 12 months earlier. The unplanned capability loss issue (UCLF), which measures how a lot of the fleet is sidelined by breakdowns, improved to 14.94% from 24.66%.

Eskom put that year-on-year enchancment at 4.25GW, or 35.9%. Its personal averages say in any other case: 11.84GW much less 7.07GW is 4.77GW, or 40.3%. Cross-checked in opposition to the UCLF percentages, each weekly averages indicate a fleet of roughly 47-48GW, which is about proper — so the averages are sound and the 4.25GW is the outlier.

Diesel spending plunges

Eskom’s arithmetic held up within the two previous updates. For the week to 2 July, it reported a discount of 5.13GW in opposition to averages of 9.85GW and 14.98GW; for the week to 9 July, 5.22GW in opposition to 8.4GW and 13.62GW. Each subtract appropriately. The week to 23 July doesn’t.

The correction cuts in Eskom’s favour. The utility described the discount as nearly equal to the capability of a big energy station “equivalent to Kusile”, which produces 4.8GW at full output. At 4.77GW, that comparability is near actual. At 4.25GW, it’s not.

The breakdown figures present up straight in what Eskom is not spending. The utility has spent R807.4-million on diesel within the monetary 12 months so far, down from R5.62-billion over the identical interval final 12 months, an 85.6% discount. Between 17 and 23 July, it burnt no diesel in any respect.

Its diesel-fired open-cycle fuel generators have run at a load issue of 1.14% for the 12 months so far, in opposition to 10.28% final 12 months and nicely throughout the budgeted 3%.

Eskom counted 434 consecutive days with out load shedding as at 23 July, courting again to 16 Might 2025, and says demand has been met 100% of the time this monetary 12 months. Its winter outlook, revealed on 22 April, tasks no load shedding by way of to 31 August.

Load discount, the localised cuts Eskom applies in areas the place unlawful connections and meter tampering have overloaded native networks, is receding on a slower curve.

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