Addis Abeba — The thirty ninth Abnormal Session of the Meeting of Heads of State and Authorities of the African Union (AU), convened in Addis Abeba from 11 to fifteen February 2026, occurred at a second when the continent’s developmental aspirations had been in direct collision with a fracturing international order. Whereas the summit’s official theme, ‘Water as a Important Useful resource for Life, Growth, and Sustainability,‘ sought to prioritize the ‘Africa Water Imaginative and prescient 2063,’ the proceedings had been profoundly overshadowed by the agenda of catastrophic instability. The AU Fee Chairperson, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, utilized the opening plenary to ship a stark indictment of the worldwide neighborhood’s failure to forestall the ‘extermination’ of populations in Gaza and the practically three-year-old implosion of Sudan, which has collectively challenged the consciences of world management.
This sense of existential disaster is just not merely a regional phenomenon; it’s a definitive symptom of what Charles Kupchan, a outstanding scholar in worldwide affairs, describes because the ‘Coming International Flip‘–a redistribution of energy and ideological authority the place no single state or political mannequin maintains a middle of gravity within the multipolarity of the post-Chilly Battle international order. As soon as carved up by Nineteenth-century European empires, the Horn of Africa is once more a chessboard for international and regional powers, however this time the gamers are extra quite a few, the stakes are greater, and the pursuit of strategic depth is driving a relentless competitors for ports, bases, and allegiances.
Regional Safety Advanced: Neo-colonialism meets neo-realism
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The up to date scramble for the Horn of Africa is greatest analyzed by means of an built-in framework of Neo-realism, Regional Safety Advanced Principle (RSCT), and the speculation of ‘A number of Modernities.’ Firstly, by means of the lens of Neo-realism, the habits of states within the Horn and the exterior powers penetrating them is pushed by an anarchic worldwide system the place safety, entry to maritime corridors, and strategic depth are the first currencies of survival. That is notably evident in the way in which Center Japanese powers have successfully built-in the Horn into their very own safety complexes, treating the Pink Sea not as a geographic barrier however as a bridge for the projection of affect.
Secondly, in ‘No One’s World,’ Charles Kupchan gives the clearest understanding of the present transition. He argues that the West’s materials and ideological dominance is ending, giving rise to an period the place rising powers neither defer to the West’s lead nor converge towards the Western liberal mannequin. On this ‘subsequent world,’ autocrats within the Persian Gulf and strongmen in Africa problem the universality of the Western mannequin, creating a worldwide panorama characterised by political and ideological range, argues Kupchan.
Inside the volatility of the brand new scramble, the stalemate between Ethiopia and Eritrea over maritime entry requires a measured and cautious scholarly method.”
Thirdly, the failure of worldwide regulation to mitigate the present scramble is a manifestation of what Antje Wiener, a German political scientist and worldwide relations scholar, describes as ‘Deep Contestations’ of the Liberal Worldwide Order (LIO). Based on Wiener, deep contestation reveals a substantive disagreement not simply with routine insurance policies however with the foundational parts of the order itself. Within the Horn, the foundational norm of territorial integrity is beneath its biggest pressure because the finish of the Chilly Battle, catalyzed by Israel’s unilateral recognition of Somaliland on 26 December, 2025. This transfer, described as being ‘within the spirit of the Abraham Accords,‘ shattered a long time of worldwide consensus relating to Somalia’s sovereignty and demonstrated that in up to date realpolitik, purposeful stability and strategic utility usually outweigh authorized standing.
Moreover, the LIO’s perceived ‘incapacity’ to resolve the Nile water dispute or present efficient mediation in Sudan has led African states to hunt options inside the BRICS framework, signaling a rejection of the ‘intrusiveness with out inclusiveness’ that has traditionally characterised Western engagement.
Horn of Africa: Peninsula of peril, promise
The Horn of Africa (HoA), the northeastern area of the African continent, consists primarily of Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia. Although not essentially acknowledged as such by itself phrases, in broader strategic discourses, the Horn is prolonged to embody Sudan, South Sudan, and Kenya. The foremost crucial for understanding the Horn is its strategic and geopolitical peculiarity. Positioned alongside the Pink Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and the Indian Ocean, the Horn dominates the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a strategic maritime chokepoint answerable for a big proportion of worldwide commerce between the Center East, Europe, and Asia. This route traverses the lion’s share of the worldwide movement of manufacturing, encompassing big portions of oil and manufactured commodities. Therefore, the Horn of Africa capabilities as a ‘cauldron of contradictions’ the place native vulnerabilities present the gas for the brand new scramble.
Firstly, the area is experiencing demographic fury, with Ethiopia’s inhabitants projected to surpass 150 million by 2030, creating an pressing and existential want for useful resource safety and employment. This huge youth bulge represents a possible engine for development, but beneath present governance fashions, it serves as a supply of home stress that compels leaders to pursue aggressive exterior methods to safe financial lifelines.
Secondly, environmental stress has reached a historic tipping level; the failure of consecutive wet seasons throughout Somalia and southern Ethiopia has left 20 to 25 million folks in want of pressing help, demonstrating that local weather shocks don’t merely create humanitarian wants however speed up geopolitical battle by reinforcing factional management over dwindling assets.
Thirdly, the area is outlined by a fancy state spectrum, that includes a typical fragile polity converging with fraught geopolitics, with nations like Somalia wracked by dysfunctional governance on account of state failure and regimes with extremely militarized energy, equivalent to Eritrea. Cross-border kinship ties that make home insecurities inevitable and regional spillovers. Teams just like the Afars and Somalis straddle a number of nationwide borders, guaranteeing {that a} disaster in Mogadishu or Djibouti instantly impacts the safety of Addis Abeba. This interdependence is a core function of the Horn’s Regional Safety Advanced, but the weak spot of regional organizations just like the Intergovernmental Authority on Growth (IGAD) has prevented the formation of an built-in safety sample.
Apart from, the area presents a logical battleground for energy dynamics, as states search safety and affect over vital navigation routes and regional facilities of world logistics. A paradigmatic instance of that is Djibouti, internet hosting a number of international navy powers, together with the USA, China, France, Italy, and Japan, all working inside its confines. To this impact, the area stays a pre-complex, exhibiting bilateral safety interdependence however failing to hyperlink these right into a collective framework on account of exterior penetration from the superpowers and Center Japanese and Gulf states.
Colonial legacy, Ethiopia’s sea entry crucial
The historic roots of the present scramble are embedded within the colonial cartographies of the late Nineteenth century, which disrupted centuries of natural regional interplay. Firstly, the 1884 Hewett Treaty and the 1900 Italo-Ethiopian settlement are sometimes revisited at the moment as proof of colonial injustices that severed Ethiopia’s historic and legit ties to the Pink Sea. In the course of the reign of Emperor Menelik II, Ethiopia was a aware rival to European imperial enlargement, defeating Italy at Adwa in 1896, but the next colonial consolidation of Eritrea left the Ethiopian state completely weak to the maritime designs of international powers.
Secondly, the federation of Eritrea with Ethiopia in 1952 beneath UN Decision 390 A(V) was meant to offer a sturdy resolution to Ethiopia’s maritime wants. Nevertheless, the erosion of federation preparations and the next 30-year battle of independence finally left Ethiopia landlocked in 1993, a transition that Acceptance of Eritrea’s independence by the then-transitional chief Meles Zenawi continues to impress resentment throughout Ethiopia’s present political spectrum.
Thirdly, the colonial legacy has created a ‘vortex impact’ the place regionalized conflicts are intensified by the interventions of world powers looking for to fill the void left by decaying nationwide establishments. In the course of the Chilly Battle, the Horn was a major laboratory for superpower competitors, characterised by the Soviet Union and the USA steadily switching allegiances between Ethiopia and Somalia to safe the strategic port of Berbera and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait.
At present, the logic of the scramble stays neo-realist, as Ethiopia relies on the Port of Djibouti for 90% of its commerce, a state of affairs that has been described as a ‘geographic jail’ by Ethiopian authorities, proscribing strategic autonomy. This historic trauma informs Ethiopia’s up to date quest for sea entry, which is framed not as territorial expansionism however because the legit pursuit of financial sovereignty.
Assab: Path from division to dividend
Inside the volatility of the brand new scramble, the stalemate between Ethiopia and Eritrea over maritime entry requires a measured and cautious scholarly method. Firstly, it have to be argued that Ethiopia has a legit nationwide curiosity in securing dependable, sovereign-linked entry to the ocean, notably by means of the Port of Assab. For a nation populated by over 120 million, maritime entry is just not an elective pursuit or a symbolic status undertaking; it’s a structural situation for nationwide development, financial competitiveness, and sovereign resilience. The historic precedent for this curiosity is strong; between 1991 and 1998, Ethiopia accessed Assab beneath peaceable, commercially sound circumstances, demonstrating that such entry is fully suitable with Eritrean autonomy.
Secondly, the search for Assab have to be answered by means of peaceable choreography and the appliance of worldwide authorized frameworks somewhat than coercive drive. Worldwide regulation presents a pathway by means of the 1982 United Nations Conference on the Legislation of the Sea (UNCLOS), the place Article 125 acknowledges the appropriate of landlocked states to freedom of transit to and from the ocean. Whereas such rights are topic to bilateral settlement, authorized students suggest the institution of a ‘sovereign easement’ or a collectively administered Particular Financial and Logistics Zone in Assab, doubtlessly overseen by the African Union or UN Commerce and Growth (UNCTAD). Such an answer would remodel Assab from a logo of division right into a website of regional convergence, offering financial dividends for each Asmara and Addis Abeba. It’s crucial that Ethiopia keep away from rhetorical frames that evoke irredentism, because the language of drive would solely erode the ethical excessive floor and invite worldwide rebuke in an already fragile Pink Sea order.
Center East Spillover: Gulf rivalries, proxy wars in Horn
The instability of the Center East has metastasized throughout the Pink Sea, turning the Horn right into a major laboratory for competing geopolitical fashions. Firstly, the ‘Israel-Somaliland Episode’ involving Israel’s recognition of Hargeisa on 26 December, 2025, represents a dramatic strategic transfer designed to safe a foothold reverse Yemen and set up an early warning system in opposition to Houthi actions. This recognition has created an ‘Israeli node’ within the Horn that invitations hostile consideration from regional actors like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, doubtlessly escalating proxy conflicts and threatening the cohesion of the Somali Republic.
The instability of the Center East has metastasized throughout the Pink Sea, turning the Horn right into a major laboratory for competing geopolitical fashions.”
Secondly, the overtly confrontational rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has turn out to be the most important destabilizing issue within the area. A definitive rupture occurred on 30 December, 2025, when Saudi airstrikes focused a UAE-linked weapons cargo within the Yemeni port of Mukalla, signaling a shift towards energetic containment of Emirati affect within the Pink Sea.
Thirdly, this Gulf schism has created a ‘Sudanization’ threat the place native actors play Riyadh and Abu Dhabi in opposition to one another to safe funding and weaponry, resulting in the sturdy partition of territory and the hollowing out of nationwide establishments. The UAE has been accused of offering logistical assist to the Fast Assist Forces (RSF) in Sudan by means of multi-billion-dollar investments and discreet navy channels, whereas Saudi Arabia and its ally Egypt largely assist the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), using Turkish-made drones within the battle. This competitors for ports and bases has successfully sidelined regional establishments, as states within the Horn are pressured to decide on sides in a brawl that serves the home political pressures of international patrons somewhat than the developmental wants of native populations.
China’s strategic anchor, neo-colonial affect
China’s engagement with the Horn of Africa represents a classy evolution of affect that blends ‘delicate energy’ infrastructure with ‘onerous energy’ safety engagement. Firstly, the Individuals’s Liberation Military (PLA) performs a rising position in China’s Africa technique, using skilled navy schooling (PME) for African officers and participation in UN Peacekeeping Operations (PKOs) to construct goodwill and safe entry to strategic areas. By 2023, China was the second-largest monetary contributor to UN PKOs and had deployed over 30,000 personnel to the continent, permitting Beijing to guard its huge investments whereas minimizing its seen unilateral navy footprint. China has lengthy invested economically and strategically within the Horn, together with its navy base in Djibouti and infrastructure tasks just like the Djibouti Addis Abeba railway.
Secondly, Beijing faces ‘dueling priorities‘ within the Horn, balancing its determined want for vitality safety in Sudan with its want to be seen as a accountable international chief. China stays Sudan’s largest buying and selling associate and has invested billions in its oil infrastructure, a symbiotic relationship that critics label as ‘neo-colonialism with Chinese language traits.’
Thirdly, the position of Chinese language arms gross sales is a vital element of the brand new scramble. China’s arms gross sales are sometimes pushed by a ‘no-strings-attached’ coverage, offering weaponry to states remoted by Western sanctions on account of human rights considerations. China has constantly used its veto energy within the UN Safety Council to dilute or block sanctions associated to the Darfur battle, defending arms transfers as ‘sovereign enterprise.’
India’s position, BRICS membership, and Western dilemma
India and the BRICS bloc have emerged as important various poles of affect, providing the Horn of Africa a special path towards modernization. Firstly, India has redefined Africa as a central axis of its ‘maritime statecraft,’ carried out by means of the SAGAR and MAHASAGAR doctrines. Throughout his go to to Ethiopia in December 2025, Prime Minister Narendra Modi elevated bilateral relations to a strategic partnership, specializing in a ‘resilience and redundancy’ mannequin that gives non-colonial safety options centered on capacity-building and digital infrastructure.
The way forward for the Horn of Africa relies on its skill to navigate the Western dilemma ….”
Secondly, Ethiopia’s entry into the BRICS bloc in 2024 has created a ‘Western dilemma’ for the administration of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Whereas BRICS membership presents entry to various improvement finance by means of the New Growth Financial institution (NDB) with out coverage conditionalities, Ethiopia stays depending on Western-led establishments just like the Worldwide Financial Fund (IMF) for debt restructuring.
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Thirdly, this strategic hedging, deepening ties with China and Russia for infrastructure and protection whereas sustaining dialogue with the West for financial stabilization, is a realistic response to the ‘International Flip.’ Nevertheless, this multi-alignment carries the danger of waning confidence amongst Japanese companions if Addis Abeba is perceived as surrendering its financial sovereignty to the Bretton Woods establishments.
Conclusion
The thirty ninth Abnormal Session of the Meeting of Heads of State and Authorities of the African Union, held in February 2026, serves as a poignant reminder that the Horn of Africa’s developmental aspirations are at present in a direct collision with a fracturing international order. This contemporary scramble for the area is now not a easy bilateral competitors however a fancy ‘cauldron of contradictions’ the place the decline of Western ideological dominance has given method to a ‘Coming International Flip’. Inside this shift, the Horn has remodeled right into a strategic chessboard the place a mess of gamers, starting from Center Japanese powers to the BRICS bloc, are pursuing maritime corridors and strategic depth on the expense of regional stability.
The standard norms of the Liberal Worldwide Order are dealing with ‘Deep Contestations,’ most notably evidenced by the shattering of worldwide consensus relating to Somalia’s sovereignty following Israel’s recognition of Somaliland in late 2025. This erosion of authorized certainty is mirrored by the ‘Sudanization’ threat fueled by the confrontational rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which threatens to hole out nationwide establishments in favor of proxy pursuits. Consequently, the area stays trapped in a pre-complex state, the place bilateral safety interdependencies fail to coalesce right into a significant collective framework on account of fixed exterior penetration.
To flee this geographic jail, notably relating to Ethiopia’s quest for sea entry, the area should pivot from coercive rhetoric towards ‘peaceable choreography’ and the appliance of worldwide authorized frameworks just like the United Nations Conference on the Legislation of the Sea (UNCLOS). By establishing modern options equivalent to sovereign easements or collectively administered financial zones, historic traumas just like the lack of the Port of Assab will be remodeled into catalysts for regional convergence. Such a transition would permit the Horn to maneuver past being a laboratory for international geopolitical fashions and as a substitute leverage its demographic fury and strategic place to safe true financial sovereignty.
In the end, the way forward for the Horn of Africa relies on its skill to navigate the Western dilemma by balancing important engagement with Bretton Woods establishments in opposition to the burgeoning affect of the Chinese language and Indian anchors. Because the African Union strives to prioritize water and sustainability, it should concurrently handle the shadow agenda of instability that threatens to undermine these very targets.
For the Horn’s inhabitants, the hope for social order and nationwide development constantly falls wanting the specter of being drawn into relentless energy struggles with ‘no winner’ pushed by exterior intervention. Solely by means of an built-in safety sample that prioritizes native developmental wants over international strategic whims can the ‘Peninsula of Peril’ lastly notice its immense promise as a resilient and autonomous international hub. AS
Editor’s Notice: Hassen Mama Muse is a lawyer primarily based in Addis Abeba. He will be contacted at hassenmama@gmail.com
Fikadu T. Ayanie (PhD) is an creator, researcher, and assistant professor of Governance and Growth Research at Jimma College. He will be contacted at fekadutolossa@gmail.com