China’s President Xi Jinping introduced in February 2026 that from 1 Might China can be granting zero-tariff remedy to 53 African international locations. (That’s all of them bar Eswatini, which helps Taiwan.)
China-Africa commerce reached US$348 billion in 2025, up 17.7% from 2024. Chinese language exports to Africa dominate commerce flows, and amounted to US$225 billion, a rise of 25.8%. This compares to US$123 billion in imports from Africa, which grew by simply 5.4%. Such a rising commerce deficit between Africa and its largest sovereign commerce associate factors to the timeliness of latest China insurance policies that help African exports to China.
Past potential for commerce facilitation and diplomacy, at a time of commerce rivalry between the nice powers, what would possibly the change imply?
Based mostly on years of examine of China-Africa commerce relations, I argue that there can be two possible primary results – one optimistic, one damaging.
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First, on the optimistic aspect, zero tariffs may present incentives for cross-country export cooperation inside Africa. On the damaging, it dangers creating circumstances through which Africa’s stronger economies seize probably the most achieve on the expense of weaker economies.
The present regime
China’s Africa-specific commerce preferences have developed by the Discussion board on China-Africa Cooperation, established in 2000. China’s personal world commerce integration since its accession to the World Commerce Group in 2001 has additionally developed.
Since 2005, African least developed international locations have loved zero-tariff entry to China throughout 100% of tariff strains. Least developed international locations are low-income international locations confronting extreme structural impediments to sustainable improvement. They’re extremely susceptible to financial and environmental shocks and have low ranges of human capital.
This coverage restricted zero-tariff commerce entry to round 33 international locations (topic to vary owing to revenue progress and diplomatic recognition of Beijing). Africa’s middle-income exporters had been excluded from the commerce preferences.
South Africa, for instance, continued to face tariffs on most exports, together with fruits, wine and processed meals. Many had been between 10% and 25%.
A handful of analysis papers have explored earlier Chinese language commerce preferences for Africa. For instance, coverage researcher and economist Adam Minson estimated that the least developed nation tariff-free preparations of 2005 would convey some international locations as little as an extra US$100,000 yearly.
My very own PhD analysis discovered that by 2009 these preferential commerce insurance policies had not had any important impression on exports. Extra lately, economists Zhina Solar and Ehizuelen Michael Mitchell Omoruyi discovered that the present zero-tariff coverage had promoted diversification of producing exports to China and of regional commerce. However there had been little impact on agriculture and mining export diversification.
One recurring advice has been to broaden equal tariff remedy throughout African regional blocs. These embrace the East African Neighborhood, Southern African Customs Union and the Financial Neighborhood of West African States.
This might result in manufacturing for export being organised regionally reasonably than distorted and even hampered by tariff differentials.
The reforms introduced by Xi in February are a shift on this course.
An incentive to co-operate?
By extending zero tariffs to virtually all African international locations, China has neutralised a component of distortion in its earlier tariff coverage. When just some international locations loved tariff-free export advantages, buyers and producers had incentives to find export manufacturing in least developed international locations to safe tariff-free entry.
This labored a few of the time, however not on a regular basis. The rationale for that is that least developed international locations discover it tough to grow to be exporters as a result of they face inhibiting obstacles to commerce usually. Examples embrace unreliable electrical energy and poor infrastructure.
The zero tariff will put least developed international locations at an obstacle as they’ll lose the “particular standing” afforded them within the previous regime. However the change may open one other door. Manufacturing selections can now reap the benefits of present and potential cross-country and intra-regional provide chains primarily based on comparative benefit – instead of being situated the place export tariffs had been smallest.
Additionally, reducing tariffs for extra developed African economies could allow African entrepreneurs to work throughout borders to have interaction in commerce with out dealing with completely different commerce obstacles by locality. That in flip could help Africa’s personal agenda of commerce integration.
To spice up commerce, China has additionally signalled it’ll broaden commerce facilitation measures. This consists of upgraded “inexperienced lanes” for African imports. Potential examples embrace:
- quicker customs clearance
- streamlined phytosanitary procedures (guidelines governing meals security). An instance can be establishing a transparent set of standards that allow an accepted exporter, say of Kenyan avocados, to get pleasure from pre-approval for customs clearance.
- larger investments in coaching and trade-related logistics.
China has additionally arrange a devoted China-Africa commerce facilitation hub in Changsha, the capital of Hunan province. The purpose is to have a central level of trade-related experience and industries, making it simpler for African and Chinese language companies do enterprise.
The danger of uneven features
There’s a threat that the brand new tariff regime will imply that manufacturing for export will focus in additional developed international locations, akin to South Africa, Morocco and Kenya. These economies are higher positioned to broaden exports when it comes into impact.
In distinction, least developed international locations will proceed to wrestle with:
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- setting up environment friendly trade-related infrastructure like telecommunications, electrical energy and port connectivity
- manufacturing at export scale
- reaching trade-related compliance requirements akin to the mandatory fruit sizes and color consistency.
China’s coverage change requires Africa’s frontier exporters to China to construct trade-related provide chains throughout African borders to garner the size and competitiveness to broaden their very own – quickly tariff-free – exports to China. In flip, this would scale back the burden on least developed international locations to want to export on to China. As an alternative, they’d solely want to affix regional commerce provide chains.
Ideally inside African sub-regions this might grow to be a brand new incentive to create trade-related worth chains.
The potential for equalisation
The Might Day tariff reforms are a optimistic in eradicating formal tariff obstacles at a time when tariffs are going up, led by america. This modification simplifies incentives and eliminates structural asymmetries in China’s Africa commerce regime.
Tariffs, nevertheless, are seldom the primary constraint for African industrial transformation and export hopes. On high of this, uncertainty is complicating the worldwide commerce atmosphere.
Nonetheless, these reforms are a step in direction of fostering sub-regional provide chains if African international locations coordinate manufacturing methods.
Lauren Johnston, Affiliate Professor, China Research Centre, College of Sydney