The battle’s affect on Africa will probably be profound – however classes learnt may spur a speedy vitality transition to a extra peaceable continent.
The world is embroiled in a battle precipitated by the USA (US) and Israel’s assault on Iran, ensuing within the loss of life of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and different Iranian leaders. This, with Iran’s retaliation, has triggered what Worldwide Power Company Government Director Fatih Birol calls the worst vitality shock ever recorded.
As with many world shocks, the affect on Africa will probably be intensive, stemming not solely from its geographical proximity to the battle, but additionally from its giant dependencies on the Gulf partnership and fossil gas merchandise.
It could appear counterintuitive, however may this geopolitical disaster, with fossil gas shortage at its core, kickstart a transfer to renewable vitality options and a decrease carbon world financial system?
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Heightened tensions within the Gulf, notably on the Strait of Hormuz, stress the purpose. In line with the US Power Info Administration, 20 million barrels of oil and a fifth of the world’s petroleum merchandise transfer by means of this slim passage every day. A fifth of the world’s traded fuel passes by means of it.
The affect has been rapid, with oil costs hovering previous US$100 per barrel mark, elevating vitality prices worldwide. G7 Power Ministers are implementing contingency measures, together with releasing strategic oil reserves at presumably unprecedented ranges.
This might additionally escalate into a worldwide meals disaster. A direct disaster may hit food-importing nations in addition to African meals growers and exporters like South Africa, Kenya, Tanzania, Egypt, Morocco, and West African espresso and cocoa producers. This is because of fertiliser shortages as Gulf oil and different ingredient provides contract.
This impacts Africa instantly on each counts with gas, vitality and fertiliser enjoying a serious position in all classes of economic and subsistence farming. African agriculture is an financial mainstay, using as much as two thirds of the workforce, contributing on common 30%-50% of gross home product and 30% of export worth. Extra rapid meals shortages are possible within the rich Gulf nations, which rely closely on imports for meals safety.
Harvard’s Belfer Heart hyperlinks oil to 25%-50% of interstate battle since 1973. It appears logical {that a} change away from fossil fuels for each vitality and agriculture in direction of renewable vitality and extra natural farming options would usher in decrease threat pathways for human growth.
A decrease dependency on fossil fuels in favour of regionally generated renewable vitality removes a lot of this threat for non-oil producing nations. It additionally encourages oil producers to interact in financial diversification to cut back dependency on fossil gas revenues.
In all, a decrease world fossil gas habit would scale back dangers of battle. It will simplify vitality logistics chains as frequent long-distance transport through oil tankers and pipelines can be wanted much less, and decrease carbon budgets. This might additionally cut back strain in different maritime choke factors just like the Suez and Panama canals.
However these equations, whereas mathematically elegant, have many nuances in the true world. A key constraint to vitality transition, particularly in Africa, has been finance. By the tip of 2024, the Gulf nations – United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain – had invested US$101.9 billion in Africa’s renewable vitality sector.
That is each an vital a part of their quest to reinvent themselves as diversified world vitality gamers, and to make use of African carbon markets as a key software to stability their carbon budgets. Renewables additionally characterize a rising funding sector in Africa.
A protracted battle within the area would harm Gulf economies sufficiently to ship shock waves worldwide, with the potential for a pullback of Gulf sovereign wealth funds. This might arrange a catastrophic pathway for the worldwide financial system, maybe for Africa particularly, given its low financial diversification ranges. This might negatively affect Africa’s growth agenda as a complete; and its local weather adaptation efforts.
There are additionally different vital threat elements related to a renewable vitality dominance in each the electrical energy and electrical automobile (EV) domains. Key amongst these is the worldwide battle for Africa’s mineral sources with a brand new particular concentrate on crucial minerals. However African management is hyper-aware of those dangers and is partaking mitigation methods, as seen on the February 2026 Investing in African Mining Indaba in Cape City.
Curiosity in EVs has risen quickly for the reason that battle began. A 20% surge has been recorded within the US; much more in Asia. Africa lags behind however is catching up, recording a US$17.4 billion market in 2025, projected to achieve US$28 billion by 2030.
Ethiopia’s transfer to ban fuel-powered automobile imports and cut back EV tariffs has seen the rise of EVs from 1% of the market to six%. This transfer, along with sourcing cleaner vitality from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam hydroelectric challenge, may see a multi-pronged speedy vitality transition technique representing a mannequin for different nations to comply with.
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Motion in new vitality automobiles along with Simply Power Transitions in South Africa, Senegal, Egypt, Morocco, Kenya and Namibia may assist the African Power Transition Programme. The programme works in direction of reaching the Agenda 2063 imaginative and prescient of industrialisation powered by low-carbon techniques.
The Iran battle has 4 huge F-words – gas, meals, fertiliser and finance. All 4 are at catastrophic threat from the battle. This crucial world second may both be remembered as an extra step into the quagmire of sluggish world growth, arrested local weather motion, and additional world inequality or a catalytic second for a worldwide turnaround.
The opportunity of the teachings of the battle powering a speedy world vitality transition to a extra sustainable, safer and peaceable world ought to be embraced.
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Dhesigen Naidoo, Analysis Affiliate, Local weather Threat and Human Safety Challenge, ISS Pretoria
