The Southern African area continues to face climate-related challenges that place its agricultural sector and meals provide in danger. The mid-summer drought of 2024 has devasted the regional maize provides, a staple meals crop for the area. To date, the main focus has been on the losses farmers are experiencing, however quickly, shopper pressures will come up.
On the finish of February 2024, Zambian President, Mr Hakainde Hichilema, declared a catastrophe after realizing the nation had misplaced over half of its maize harvest due to the drought. Zambia’s maize manufacturing within the 2023-24 season is down by over 50% to an estimated harvest of 1,6 million tonnes. The nation now finds itself able the place it has to import a report quantity of a million tonnes to fulfill the home maize wants of 2,8 million tonnes.
Zimbabwe faces an analogous problem, with maize harvest down roughly 60% from the 2022-23 manufacturing season to an estimated 635,000 tonnes. That is the bottom harvest because the 2015-16 manufacturing season, one other drought 12 months. Furthermore, the drought just isn’t the one motive for the autumn in Zimbabwe’s maize harvest; though a major issue, the decline in fertilizer utilization has additionally contributed to poor yields. The fertilizer costs, whereas down from the earlier 12 months, are remarkably above the pre-COVID-19 ranges, thus including monetary pressure on poor smallholder farmers, the vast majority of producers in Zimbabwe. The fertilizer makes up roughly a 3rd of the grain farmers’ enter prices.
This important decline in Zimbabwe’s maize manufacturing signifies that the import wants will improve sharply. Zimbabwe’s home maize consumption is often at about two million tonnes. Thus, the US Division of Agriculture’s Pretoria-based analysts estimate that Zimbabwe might have to import at the least 1,000,000 tonnes within the new advertising 12 months of 2024-25 is convincing (the 2024-25 advertising 12 months corresponds with the 2023-24 manufacturing season). Such an import determine is a major improve from Zimbabwe’s maize imports of 637,327 tonnes within the 2023-24 advertising 12 months, all from South Africa.
In contrast to the 2023-24 advertising 12 months, the place South Africa’s total maize exports have been 3,4 million tonnes, within the new 2024-25 advertising 12 months, South Africa’s maize exports will probably fall to 1,4 million tonnes. That is on the again of a poor home harvest. South Africa’s maize harvest is down 19% year-on-year, estimated at 13,3 million tonnes, due to the mid-summer drought.
Admittedly, South Africa didn’t expertise a pointy fall in manufacturing, not like Zimbabwe or Zambia, the place the home maize harvests are down by over 50%. A part of the reason being variations in farming practices and the improved seed cultivars in South Africa, amongst different elements. The numerous distinction is utilizing improved seed cultivars, fertilizer, and agrochemicals. Irrigation just isn’t a significant component, as solely 10% of South African maize is beneath irrigation, and the remainder is rainfed. That is just like Zimbabwe’s maize proportion beneath irrigation.
Nonetheless, Zimbabwe will probably be the numerous beneficiary if the nation’s non-public sector stakeholders and authorities place orders promptly. Zambia, one other Southern African nation with a maize import want of 1,000,000 tonnes, insists that the imports ought to solely be non-genetically modified. Over 85% of South Africa’s maize is genetically modified, which signifies that, beneath the present guidelines, Zambia might not take into account South Africa a provider of maize.
One would have anticipated Zambia to ease its laws in such seasons of main maize wants. However, the federal government authorities have maintained this prohibition. It’s already a problem to search out white maize on the planet market no matter whether or not it’s genetically modified or not, as the first producers are the Southern African area (South Africa particularly) and Mexico. A lot of the world’s maize is yellow maize for animal feed.
The drought has hit your entire Southern Africa area. Subsequently, Zambia faces a tricky problem for the months forward and is one other nation to observe intently in the direction of the final quarter of this 12 months and into the primary quarter of 2025. It’s all doable that, confronted with the realities of upper home meals costs and shortage of non-genetically modified maize provides, Zambia might alter its coverage.
We’re studying the headlines in regards to the important decline in Southern Africa’s maize provides. Nevertheless, the total affect of the poor harvest on the buyer will probably be extra pronounced in the direction of the tip of this 12 months and into the primary quarter of 2025. That is when the key maize customers within the Southern African area would have used a lot of the home harvest, which supplied a much-needed cushion within the close to time period. Thus, important upside dangers stay in maize costs, primarily white maize, in the direction of the tip of this 12 months and into 2025 due to this doable regional maize demand.
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