South African IT spending will develop 19.8% in 2026 to US$28.1-billion, greater than 5 proportion factors quicker than the worldwide determine, based on figures Gartner supplied to TechCentral.
The analysis agency doesn’t publish a South African breakdown with its quarterly world releases. It provided the native minimize on request, following its worldwide forecast on 27 July, which raised anticipated 2026 IT spending to $6.37-trillion and development to 14.2%.
Native spending was $23.45-billion in 2025. On the alternate charge on the time of publication of R16.81 to the greenback, the 2026 determine works out to roughly R472-billion. Gartner forecasts in {dollars}, so the rand determine is an indicative conversion that can transfer with the forex.
The native forecast comes on the finish of a sustained run of upward revisions by Gartner to forecasted world IT spending, every bigger than the final:
- October 2025: $6.08-trillion, development of 9.8%, the primary time the agency put worldwide IT spending above $6-trillion
- February 2026: $6.15-trillion, development of 10.8%
- April 2026: $6.31-trillion, development of 13.5%
- July 2026: $6.37-trillion, development of 14.2%
In 9 months, the projected development charge has moved from 9.8% to 14.2% and the greenback complete has climbed by about $290-billion. Information centre spending has been repeatedly underestimated: as not too long ago as April, Gartner put the section at $788-billion and 55.8% development. It now has it at $822-billion and 62.5%.
Learn: SA places knowledge centres on par with power, ports in massive coverage shift
“Constructing the compute capability required for AI is the most important infrastructure mission ever tried by humanity,” stated John-David Lovelock, distinguished VP analyst at Gartner, in a press release. “Pushed by the growth of AI workloads and demand for high-performance computing, hyperscalers and enterprises are quickly scaling next-generation knowledge centre capability.”
One caveat for anybody evaluating quarters: Gartner cut up the beforehand mixed “IT providers” line into providers and infrastructure as a service (IaaS) in July, in order that row will not be comparable with April.
What the South African numbers present
| Phase | 2025 | 2026 | Development | International development |
| Communications providers | $7 847m | $8 911m | 13.6% | 4.4% |
| Software program | $5 325m | $6 618m | 24.3% | 15.5% |
| Providers | $4 787m | $5 474m | 14.4% | 5.3% |
| Units | $4 056m | $4 573m | 12.7% | 9.8% |
| Information centre methods | $1 088m | $2 074m | 90.6% | 62.5% |
| IaaS | $344m | $436m | 26.7% | 29.3% |
| Whole | $23 447m | $28 085m | 19.8% | 14.2% |
Supply: Gartner (July 2026). Development charges calculated by TechCentral from Gartner’s spending figures
Three issues stand out:
- The primary is knowledge centre methods, which Gartner expects to almost double, from $1.09-billion to $2.07-billion, development of 90.6% in opposition to 62.5% globally. That’s off a small base, and nonetheless leaves the section at 7.4% of South African IT spend in opposition to 12.9% worldwide. However it’s the clearest quantity but on how a lot of the AI buildout is being felt domestically.
- The second is how weighted the market stays to telecoms. Communications providers remains to be the most important native class at $8.91-billion, or 31.7% of IT spend, in opposition to 21.3% worldwide, and it’s rising at 13.6% versus 4.4% globally, the slowest-growing class in Gartner’s world desk.
- The third is the place South Africa lags. IaaS is forecast to develop 26.7% domestically in opposition to 29.3% globally, and at $436-million accounts for simply 1.6% of native spend in opposition to 4.5% worldwide. South Africa is shopping for the servers quicker than the world. It’s shopping for the cloud capability that runs on high of them extra slowly.
South Africa is anticipated to account for about 0.44% of worldwide IT spending in 2026, up from 0.42%.
Regional view is extra sober
The continental image is extra sober. Figures from T4i, the Africa-focused advisory agency based by Mark Walker after three many years at Worldwide Information Corp, put sub-Saharan African ICT spending at $108-billion in 2026, rising to $143.1-billion by 2030 – a compound annual development charge of seven.3%.
| SSA ICT spend ($bn) | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | CAGR |
| AI-specific | 1.7 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 38.7% |
| Conventional (non-AI) | 106.3 | 113.2 | 120.6 | 128.4 | 136.8 | 6.5% |
| Whole | 108 | 115.5 | 123.8 | 132.9 | 143.1 | 7.3% |
Supply: T4i
AI-specific spending grows quickest by far, at 38.7% a yr, however from a really small base. It’s 1.6% of regional ICT spending in 2026 and nonetheless solely 4.4% by 2030. Of the $35.1-billion the area provides over the interval, AI accounts for $4.6-billion; the remainder is conventional ICT rising at 6.5%.
The 2 datasets aren’t instantly comparable: T4i measures ICT throughout sub-Saharan Africa over 5 years, Gartner IT in South Africa over one. However learn collectively they recommend a pointy near-term spike concentrated within the area’s largest financial system relatively than a broad continental repricing.
Walker factors to a protracted checklist of constraints: financing prices, regulation and taxation, water, connectivity, expertise, and electrical energy. He additionally cites “socio-cultural friction resulting from unemployment issues”, restricted native language and content material functionality, and the disruption of enterprise course of outsourcing, name centre and a few manufacturing sectors by agentic AI.
Spending up, shipments down
A major share of the rise is price, not functionality, and Gartner has been express about it.
The agency estimates a 130% surge in mixed DRAM and SSD costs by the tip of 2026, elevating PC costs 17% and smartphone costs 13% in opposition to 2025 ranges. The consequence is that worldwide PC shipments will fall 10.4% this yr and smartphone shipments 8.4%, whilst spending on gadgets rises.
Learn: Reminiscence disaster sends smartphone market into steep decline
“That is the bottom degree of system shipments witnessed in over a decade,” stated Ranjit Atwal, senior director analyst at Gartner. “Increased costs will slim the vary of gadgets accessible, prompting patrons to carry on to gadgets for longer, essentially altering improve cycles.”
PC reminiscence prices are anticipated to peak at 23% of the overall invoice of supplies, up from 16% in 2025. “This sharp enhance removes distributors’ skill to soak up prices, making low-margin entry-level laptops non-viable,” Atwal stated. “In the end, we anticipate the sub-$500 entry-level PC section will disappear by 2028.”
Gartner has South African system spending rising 12.7%, however globally it expects folks to purchase fewer machines, no more. In a market that imports nearly all its {hardware} and pays for software program and cloud in {dollars}, a much bigger IT invoice doesn’t imply extra know-how.
Not a rising tide
Gartner says the increase will not be lifting every part. “Regardless of the sturdy development in spending, this isn’t a rising-tide-lifts-all-boats market pattern,” Lovelock stated. “Know-how budgets are being strained by inflation, provide shortages, rising {hardware} and reminiscence prices, AI funding initiatives and shifting priorities.”
That divergence has already drawn blood. IBM’s shares fell 25% on 14 July after CEO Arvind Krishna instructed buyers the corporate had not anticipated “the magnitude of the capex reprioritisation” as shoppers shifted spend in the direction of servers, storage and reminiscence. Microsoft, ServiceNow, Salesforce and Intuit fell in sympathy.
Learn: IBM shares crash 25% as AI upends software program spending
Gartner updates the forecast each quarter. On the sample of the previous 4, the query is much less whether or not the quantity strikes than by how a lot. — © 2026 NewsCentral Media
