Africa has seen this earlier than: The revolutionary brothers who as soon as shared jail cells, marketing campaign levels, liberation trenches and political slogans ultimately arrive on the similar vacation spot: the brutal crossroads of energy.
From Robert Mugabe and Emmerson Mnangagwa in Zimbabwe, to Salva Kiir and Riek Machar in South Sudan, to the dramatic fallout between Julius Malema and Floyd Shivambu inside South Africa’s Financial Freedom Fighters, the continent’s political historical past is suffering from former allies who ultimately found that defeating an outdated order is way simpler than managing ambition inside a brand new one.
Even Botswana — lengthy considered Africa’s mannequin democracy — has not escaped the tensions of political succession. The as soon as shut relationship between former president Ian Khama and his successor Mokgweetsi Masisi deteriorated into one of many area’s bitterest political feuds after disagreements over energy, management of the ruling celebration and the long run route of the state.
South Africa itself affords one other cautionary story. Thabo Mbeki and Cyril Ramaphosa as soon as stood aspect by aspect contained in the African Nationwide Congress as a part of the post-apartheid governing elite. But succession battles, factionalism and ideological tensions ultimately reworked comradeship into political rivalry. Mbeki’s eventual recall by his personal motion revealed how liberation politics typically devours its personal architects.
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Past Africa, the sample repeats itself. In the UK, Tony Blair and his longtime Chancellor Gordon Brown ruled collectively for years whereas quietly participating in certainly one of trendy politics’ most well-known energy struggles. And many years earlier in Burkina Faso, Thomas Sankara’s revolutionary authorities resulted in tragedy when his shut ally Blaise Compaoré overthrew him within the coup that led to Sankara’s assassination.
The lesson from all these examples is uncomfortable however plain: revolutions are often united in opposition, however divided in authorities.
The chemistry wanted to dismantle an institution is never the identical chemistry required to control a fragile financial system, negotiate worldwide obligations, calm markets and handle competing ambitions inside the identical motion.
Which brings us to Senegal.
For years, Senegal represented certainly one of Africa’s brightest democratic examples — a politically steady nation with robust establishments, mental vibrancy and relative democratic maturity in a area more and more battered by coups and constitutional manipulations.
That picture is now dealing with its most severe political stress check in years.
The dramatic collapse of the political partnership between President Bassirou Diomaye Faye and Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko has shaken the foundations of the youthful political revolution that swept them into workplace in 2024.
What as soon as regarded like an inseparable political alliance has now deteriorated into open confrontation.
President Faye’s choice to dismiss Sonko as prime minister and dissolve the federal government after months of simmering tensions over financial coverage, debt administration, IMF negotiations and inner political management didn’t merely sign a political disagreement. It signaled the start of a battle for the soul, route and possession of Senegal’s revolution.
However maybe none of this could shock cautious observers of African politics.
Mr President, you at all times knew that governing alongside Sonko would by no means be an bizarre association.
You knew Sonko was not merely endorsing your candidacy after being barred from contesting the presidency himself. He was transferring to you some of the emotionally charged political actions Senegal had witnessed in many years — a motion constructed on youth anger, anti-establishment vitality, pan-African nationalism and resistance in opposition to the political equipment of former president Macky Sall.
Hundreds of thousands didn’t merely vote for Diomaye Faye the person. They voted for what many believed was the continuation of the Sonko revolution.
And therein lay the contradiction from the very starting. As a result of Sonko remained greater than a politician. He remained the emotional centre of the rebellion itself.
Faye might have occupied the constitutional presidency, however Sonko retained the revolutionary mystique, the road credibility and the emotional possession of the motion amongst Senegal’s politically stressed youth.
That duality was at all times going to develop into unstable.
The cracks had been seen for months. Studies more and more pointed to disagreements over Senegal’s worsening debt pressures, negotiations with the Worldwide Financial Fund, state appointments, financial reforms and succession calculations towards the 2029 presidential election.
And make no mistake — beneath the coverage disputes lies a a lot deeper political warfare already underway.
The battle for 2029 has already begun.
For Sonko, the hazard is clear. If Faye efficiently consolidates state energy and builds his personal political equipment, Sonko dangers turning into the revolutionary founder progressively pushed to the margins by the very administration he helped create.
For Faye, the menace is equally severe. With out Sonko’s populist vitality and grassroots mobilization equipment, can he keep political legitimacy among the many hundreds of thousands who noticed the 2 males as inseparable symbols of change?
That’s the paradox now haunting Senegal’s management.
And maybe essentially the most fascinating political chance of all is whether or not desperation might ultimately produce the unthinkable.
If President Faye’s recognition weakens additional amid financial hardship, rising debt pressures and mounting political instability, might he quietly search lodging with the very political institution that Sonko spent years combating — together with networks aligned to Macky Sall?
In African politics, yesterday’s enemy typically turns into tomorrow’s strategic ally.
It could not be the primary time survival instincts overpowered revolutionary purity.
Mockingly, Macky Sall himself might now watch these developments with quiet satisfaction. The identical political institution as soon as accused of jailing, humiliating and politically isolating Sonko has now witnessed the implosion of the motion that in the end eliminated Sall from energy.
However past personalities, betrayals and political theatre lies the way more severe subject: the financial system.
Political instability might excite commentators and energize tv debates, however markets don’t have a good time uncertainty.
Traders don’t reward inner warfare.
Worldwide lenders don’t take pleasure in confusion on the summit of energy.
Senegal is navigating some of the delicate financial moments in its trendy historical past. Debt issues, fiscal pressures and disrupted worldwide financing preparations already threaten financial stability. The collapse of cohesion contained in the nation’s management now dangers magnifying these anxieties.
The uncertainty surrounding who really controls Senegal’s political route might delay reforms, complicate debt restructuring discussions and weaken investor confidence at exactly the second Dakar desperately requires financial calm and coverage readability.
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For worldwide companions — together with the IMF, Gulf buyers, China, Europe and the USA — the implosion of the Faye-Sonko alliance raises uncomfortable questions on continuity, governance and financial administration.
Can Senegal nonetheless present predictable management?
Can long-term agreements survive political fragmentation?
Can a authorities at warfare with itself keep investor confidence?
These questions matter as a result of Senegal shouldn’t be merely one other African state navigating political turbulence. Senegal carries symbolic democratic significance for the continent itself.
And but maybe Senegal nonetheless possesses one thing many international locations lose throughout moments like these: robust democratic instincts and institutional resilience.
Which will in the end reserve it.
However historical past nonetheless affords a warning.
Liberation actions and revolutionary coalitions typically collapse not due to exterior enemies, however due to inner rivalries over who really owns the victory as soon as energy is achieved.
Africa has seen this earlier than.
The one unanswered query now could be whether or not Senegal’s younger giants will be taught from that historical past — or repeat it.
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Daniel Makokera is a renowed media character who has labored as journalist, tv anchor, producer and convention presenter for over 20 years. All through his profession as presenter and anchor, he has travelled extensively throughout the continent and held unique interviews with a few of Africa’s most illustrious leaders. These embrace former UN Secretary Normal Kofi Annan, former South African presidents Nelson Mandela and Thabo Mbeki, former Libyan chief Muammar Gaddafi, Zimbabwean Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai and presidents Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe and Joseph Kabila of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. He presently is the CEO of Pamuzinda Productions primarily based in South Africa.
