The Iran struggle has upended the method of transferring the archipelago’s sovereignty from the UK to Mauritius.
The Chagos Archipelago has been within the highlight not too long ago on account of its relevance in the US (US)-Israel-Iran battle. The eye centres on the joint US-United Kingdom (UK) navy base on the archipelago’s largest island, Diego Garcia, and its unsettled future.
The navy base’s significance hinges on its strategic Indian Ocean location, close to sufficient to the Center East however out of vary of Iranian missiles.
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In October 2024, the UK agreed to cede sovereignty over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, marking the top of a decades-long dispute over possession. In Could 2025, a proper settlement was reached. However what initially appeared a significant diplomatic victory for the small island state has turn into a drawn-out geopolitical stalemate.
With the Iran struggle and the Diego Garcia base’s indispensable place within the area, Mauritius’ acquisition of the archipelago appears more and more out of attain. Most not too long ago, on 11 April, the UK introduced the deal had been paused and would not proceed with out US approval.
Central to this impasse are 4 key actors with divergent motivations guiding their curiosity within the Indian Ocean islands: the US, UK, Mauritius and Chagossians themselves.
For the US, Chagos has turn into a fortuitous bargaining chip with the UK. The islands’ destiny was thrown into doubt by US President Donald Trump’s unfavourable feedback on the UK-Mauritius settlement.
At face worth, Trump’s objections are security-focused, hinging on the bottom’s significance for the stability of energy within the Indian Ocean and the risks of granting elevated entry to Mauritius, a rustic with cordial relations with US adversaries like China.
In actuality, the navy base’s future is low precedence for Trump. Quite, his criticism of the deal as ‘an act of nice stupidity‘ and ‘a giant mistake‘ is extra strategic, supposed to strain the UK into supporting US goals in different arenas.
Initially, Trump’s criticism emerged in obvious retaliation to UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s feedback about Trump’s declare to Greenland. Extra not too long ago, Trump’s withholding of assist for Chagos has given him leverage to power UK compliance over the Iran battle and, notably, utilizing UK navy bases (together with Diego Garcia) to launch assaults.
Each the UK and Mauritius need to ratify the settlement shortly, however for various causes. For each, the first motivation is much less geopolitical and extra nationwide.
The previous administration’s poor fiscal administration has left Mauritius financially strained. The federal government promoted the Chagos cheque as important for debt aid over the following few years. Mauritius may benefit from as much as £165 million yearly tied to a 99-year lease of Diego Garcia entered into by the UK.
In contrast to Trump, Starmer’s administration has constantly affirmed that the Mauritius deal is essential to the bottom’s long-term safety, amid a shift in worldwide opinion that locations the UK’s continued possession of the Chagos Islands below scrutiny. The African Union has backed Mauritius’ declare since 2010.
Starmer has stood agency towards a rising Conservative Social gathering backlash over what it termed a ‘give up’ take care of restricted profit for the UK. If the deal’s ratification falls by way of now, it will be a notable optics failure for Starmer and his Labour Social gathering and will erode public confidence in his administration, whereas leaving the UK open to additional worldwide pushback over its continued maintain on the islands.
Complicating issues, the Conservative Social gathering’s opposition towards the deal has drawn on not solely Trump’s negativity, but additionally Chagossians’ discontent, by way of their lack of belief within the association. Some Chagossians – many dwelling within the UK following a Nineteen Sixties pressured relocation scheme – say the deal does not prioritise their pursuits.
Chagossians’ major goal has lengthy been to resettle on the islands; they are saying the deal provides restricted ensures to make sure this. As a small group of round 8 000, their leverage is proscribed. However, their trigger will proceed to be championed by the UK opposition as proof that the settlement does not sufficiently profit everybody.
With all actors stubbornly locked into their divergent positions, any hope of progress hangs on who would be the first to fold. Nevertheless, management over the settlement’s future just isn’t evenly proportioned.
Mauritius has little energy to power the Trump administration to alter its stance. Mauritius’ authorities might place itself because the extra preferable of two choices following a brand new declare over the islands from the Maldives, which has nearer ties to China than Mauritius. In doing so, Mauritius might foyer for a speedy ratification of the settlement as one of the simplest ways to safe the US’ long-term Indian Ocean ambitions.
Nevertheless, with Trump’s about-face over the settlement having much less to do with Diego Garcia’s safety than with broader geopolitical leverage, success of this can doubtless stay restricted.
A extra stable technique for Mauritius could be to threaten authorized motion towards the UK over the deal’s delay. Whereas the Starmer administration has refuted the necessity to compensate Mauritius for the deal’s failure, it needs to keep away from a authorized battle.
Pursuing a judicial case, by way of the Everlasting Courtroom of Arbitration or one other worldwide dispute mechanism, might urge the UK to behave in one in every of two methods. Underneath sustained strain, it might proceed with ratification with out US assist. Its reluctance to take action illustrates that the advantages of its particular relationship with the US outweigh the significance of a concluded association with Mauritius.
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Extra doubtless, the UK will strain the US to reissue a press release of assist for the settlement. Given Trump’s evident inflexibility in response to threats, it will be simpler for the UK to make concessions to the US – notably relating to assist for the Iran battle – in alternate for renewed backing.
Nonetheless, the UK’s evident reluctance to proceed with out US backing has given America vital leverage over the association. Trump is unlikely to name for an outright dissolution of the deal; he has extra to realize from holding the potential of renewed assist in play. But he additionally will not straight assist the Chagos handover whereas that advantages him.
With no extra forceful strategy from the UK and with restricted leverage obtainable to Mauritius, the Chagos Archipelago will doubtless stay in a state of geopolitical purgatory for now.
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Zoë McCathie, Nation Threat Analyst, Sign Threat
Ronak Gopaldas, ISS Guide and Sign Threat Director